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The US launches a trade war and will lose five major potential benefits

时间:2018-07-10 08:20:27   作者:China Daily   来源:China Daily   阅读:4583   评论:0
内容摘要:Since March this year, Sino-US trade conflicts have followed a course of ups and downs, and the Sino-US "trade war" has shrouded t......

Since March this year, Sino-US trade conflicts have followed a course of ups and downs, and the Sino-US "trade war" has shrouded the turmoil, which has brought many uncertain risks to Sino-US relations and even the world economy. Once the trade war begins, China and the United States will lose both sides and will lose the huge interests of China and the United States over five aspects. If you think about the problem, if the two sides can resolve the problem, then it is possible to create a "miracle" in the history of world trade through the joint efforts of both sides.

1. The US launches a trade war and will lose five major potential benefits

First, China and the United States will lose a broad space for future cooperation. According to a quantitative study conducted by the Peterson Institute in 2013, if China and the United States cooperate to promote BITT (FTA), it will increase the import and export trade volume to 50,000 million US dollars and 4.8 million jobs. This research is very objective and feasible. If the two countries continue to struggle with the deficit of traditional trade and refuse to look ahead and look far, there is no prospect of promoting closer cooperation and integration between China and the United States.

Second, China and the United States will lose the huge benefits brought about by the division of labor in the global industrial chain. According to some of the problems relating to catching-up raised by the US 301 investigation report, the first step will be to cut off the credit chain connecting the global industry. After the credit chain is blocked, the connection between the industrial chains , the supply chain and the value chain will be lost. As a result, the global division of labor, cooperation and trade, which were originally products of market selection, and the gains from market behaviors of countries under these mechanisms will be lost. This will not only affect China and the United States, but also affect the division of labor in other countries within the industrial chain.

Third, it will make the world lose a major historical opportunity for economic recovery and warming. The world economy has started to recover from 2017. This year, the overall recovery has begun. 75% of the world's economies are on the rise. It can be said that the world has entered a course of transition from normal economic development to rapid economic development. If the Sino-US trade issue is not resolved, it will inevitably challenge the recovery of the world economy. According to research by relevant institutions, if the Sino-US trade conflict cannot be solved well, its impact will spread to the whole world, and world trade will even fall by 40%. This is not alarmist, because the trade volume between China and the United States accounts for nearly 25% of total global trade. Once Sino-US trade problems occur, the impact will be terrible, which will be a disaster for the global economy.

Fourth, the international order and international rules that have been formed over the years will be deprived of authority and restraint, which will lead to chaos in the world economy. "China and the United States are in a world of prosperity, and China and the United States are in a chaotic world." At present, the WTO is experiencing the most difficult moment in history. Some countries have replaced multilateralism with unilateralism and replaced international rules with domestic rules. Some ambassadors to the WTO have expressed concern. The replacement of multilateralism and WTO rules by the United States with unilateralism may pose great challenges to China and the United States and even to the rules and order of the world. Since 1974, the United States has used 301 clauses to initiate 125 trade sanctions against 35 countries. After the establishment of the WTO in 1995, the WTO objected to US practice and believed that this did not comply with WTO rules. Therefore, the United States has not used Section 301 for trade sanctions since 1995. This time, the United States regained the 301 clause to impose trade sanctions on China, and this extended to a series of industries such as manufacturing, high-tech industries and the integration of military and civilian development. This unilateralism will replace multilateralism and WTO rules and will pose great challenges for the world economy and world order.

Fifth, most importantly is that the United States will lose China’s huge market dividend. China's market is developing rapidly. In 2017, the size of China's market was equal to that of the US market. According to China's current speed of development, the Chinese market will increase at a rate of 13% per year, and China will soon become the world's largest market. At the same time, China’s imports will increase by 10 trillion US dollars over the next five years. The Sino-US trade war will cause the United States to lose China’s huge market dividend.

2. China and the United States can create a new "miracle" from five aspects. Trade conflicts are not good for China and the United States and the whole world. Therefore, if China and the United States can more closely cooperate in trade, investment and other aspects, the United States will be able to share the market dividend of China and will give it to the United States, bringing more investment opportunities. In order to resolve the Sino-US trade conflict, the key now is that the US should change its thinking to resolve the Sino-US trade conflict. China and the United States can create new miracles from five aspects.

First, relax the US export of high-tech products. With this alone, China can increase imports by $100 billion. China's chip imports in 2017 were $260 billion, of which $87.5 billion came from the United States. However, at present, the United States imposes strict control over the export of high-tech products to China. If the United States can be liberalized in relevant areas, it is not difficult for China to import $100 billion.

Second, jointly promote the digital economy. The two countries jointly promote the digital economy including E international trade and open data circulation. In 2017, the total cross-border e-commerce of the United States was 11.6 trillion yuan, and the total cross-border e-commerce of China was 4.6 trillion yuan. If we cooperate through cross-border e-commerce and digital trade, China can increase imports by at least 100 billion U.S. dollars.

Third, we must accelerate the BIT negotiations. The BIT negotiations have been carried out for 34 rounds. If negotiations are speeded up to form a text, it will form an institutional environment that can be expected by Chinese and American companies. According to the statistics of Rongding Group, the investment of Chinese enterprises in the United States reached 45.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2016. If the U.S. relaxes the investment restrictions on Chinese companies according to BIT, the annual growth of Chinese enterprises’ investment in the U.S. will inevitably exceed 45.6 billion U.S. dollars. If US investment in China grows at the same rate, it will not be difficult to grow by $50 billion a year.

Fourth, strengthen cooperation in the “Belt and Road” initiative. Strengthen cooperation between the two countries in infrastructure investment under the “Belt and Road” framework and jointly develop third-party markets. In particular, intellectual service companies and high-tech service companies in the United States can play the role of prevention and control and risk assessment on major projects in the “Belt and Road” project, so that they can not only develop the markets of countries along the “Belt and Road”, but also obtain huge interest.

Fifth, promote the China-US FTA. The China-US FTA has not yet entered the agenda. If the China-US FTA is launched, according to the research conclusions of the Peterson Institute, the two sides can increase the trade volume by 500 billion US dollars.

It can be seen that if the United States can change its thinking, Trump’s proposed $250 billion deficit can be easily reduced, and bilateral trade will usher in greater development. As long as the two sides use their brains and think of means from all sides, Sino-US trade may turn into a surplus, and this miracle may happen.



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